mercredi 16 décembre 2009

Mike Shedlock et la personnalité de l'année du Time Magazine.

Mike Shedlock nous offre cet excellent billet sur la nomination de Ben Bernanke comme personnalité de l'année du magazine Time.

Il démontre de façon convaincante qu'au fil des décennies, le magazine Time s'est révélé être un excellent indicateur contrarien, signifiant un plateau ou un changement imminent dans la situation de la personne nominée en question.

Voici les mots de Shedlock (je recommande fortement la lecture de l'article en entier):

I openly praise Time Magazine as a useful contrarian indicator.

That Bernanke is on the cover of Time Magazine means one thing "Bernanke's Time Is Limited" He is on his way out. And that is good news.

Ringing The Bell

My friend "HB" writes:
Appearing on the cover of Time as person of the year is like a bell ringing. It almost always is akin to a figurative death sentence for the person involved, and sometimes even a literal one.

  • Jeff Bezos made the cover in 1999 - the year the internet portion of the tech stock bubble topped out.
  • GW Bush made the cover as his popularity rating had just begun to slide, ending at the worst such rating since Nixon, concurrent with a stock market crash.
  • Hitler made the cover in 1938.
  • General Chiang Kai Chek in 1937. It turned out to be an ill omen, career-wise.
  • Stalin made the cover in 1939 and again in 1942.
  • Kennedy made the cover the year before he was assassinated, as did Martin Luther King - a literal death sentence in both cases.
  • Lyndon B. Johnson made the cover in 1964 - he was about to lead the country into the Vietnam catastrophe.
  • Nixon and Kissinger made it in 1972.
  • It was Yury Andropov's turn in 1983 - he died shortly thereafter.
  • Gorbachov became 'man of the decade' half a year before being forced to step down.
  • Obama's turn was last year.
  • Most worrisome however, in 2006 Time decided to write on its person-of-the-year cover 'You!'
Le blogue de Mike Shedlock est une excellente source de faits pertinents sur l'économie, brillamment analysés avec une perspective Autrichienne.

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